According to a report from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), new projections indicate a continued shortage of physicians in the next 10 to 15 years, although the shortage is expected to be less than previously forecasted. AAMC predicts a shortfall of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians by 2036, with demand for physician services continuing to outpace the supply of working clinicians. By comparison, the 2021 report projected a shortfall of up to 124,000 physicians by 2034. Not surprisingly, primary care is facing the most significant shortage with an estimated deficit of as many as 40,400 physicians by 2036. Rising demand is generally driven by population growth and the aging of America.
A heartfelt farewell to your colleagues: AAMC also says a substantial portion of the current physician workforce is nearing retirement age, suggesting that more than a third of active physicians may retire within the next decade. “Physicians aged 65 or older were 17% of the active workforce in 2021, and those between age 55 and 64 made up another 25% of the active workforce,” according to the report.
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