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In 1990, 19.3% of American adults were considered obese. By 2022, the prevalence had increased to 42.5% of adults. Now researchers are predicting that by 2035, the percentage of adults who are obese will increase to 46.9%, as published in JAMA. Obesity is defined as a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher, although there are many who challenge the 200-year-old measure because it doesn’t translate well across different races, ethnicities, and genders. The JAMA researchers examined data from 11 million people and found obesity prevalence rose most for Hispanic people and rose least for Black males. Black females had the highest age-standardized prevalence of obesity in 2022 (56.9%), followed by Hispanic females (49.4%). In raw numbers, there were an estimated 107 million U.S. adults living with obesity in 2022—a number that researchers predict will increase to 126 million by 2035. At the same time, not a single state is expected to see a decrease in obesity prevalence over the next 10 years, although data suggest that the prevalence of obesity may be plateauing in some locations with previously higher obesity prevalence.
Market growth: With the rising use of GLP-1 drugs—about 12% of adults say they are taking them, according to KFF—the market for weight loss solutions is already substantial in the United States. Even so, urgent cares that are tempted to consider weight-loss as a line of business would need to do the arithmetic on profitability and consider a cash-only program. In the long-term, clinicians may see a higher number of patients with type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension—the leading health risks associated with obesity.